Currency markets at crucial point….
Markets seem to come out of the consolidation mode and increase in risk appetite saw the US Dollar being sold across the board. Almost all markets closed in the green and all currencies except the JPY saw strength against the greenback. The Dollar index closed below a key support level at 80 before closing 79.83. Sustained move below these levels would initiate further downside for the dollar. The Euro saw movement of 250 pips with 1.3800 being tested on Friday in the European market. The INR strength continues buoyed by strong fundamental coming on the back of a strong IIP numbers for a second month in a row. Movements on both side were very erratic with 45.38 levels bringing in importers and state bids while 45.63 level bringing further shorts into play. We would maintain an intraday range of 45.38-45.63 with bias tilted towards buying the dips. Technically 45.28 is yet to be tested and exporters are “not yet” panicking. Once exporters start panic booking with a simultaneous drop below the 45.28, it is likely to bring further downside.
Market Developments
Global Outlook
- The US Dollar fell against all majors except the Japanese Yen, breaking out of its tight range against the Euro and testing its recent lows. A limited week of economic event risk initially left the heavily-traded currency relatively motionless, but the latter half of the week saw the Greenback considerably lower through Friday’s trade. The declines were perhaps surprising given a significantly stronger-than-expected US Retail sales report on Friday morning; robust spending gave modest hope that the US consumer may prove more resilient than previously predicted. CFTC data is mixed with Dollar’s net long positions fell from $5.58 billion to $3.99 billion, however Euro shorts rose to another record of 74551 contracts suggesting that 1.3800 would be hard to break. After the break of 80 levels in the dollar index we feel that 78.56 would a decisive level to watch. A busy week of economic event risk likewise promises considerable volatility in the days ahead.
- EUR/USD was encouraged by better equity market and stronger than expected EU Industrial Production to hunt for stops through 1.3750, despite initially hampered by Russian selling. Prices made a run close to 1.3800, but lost momentum. Equity markets were majorly buoyant for the major part of last week with S&P 500 breaking January’s high of 1150. Nikkei managed to rise 382 pts to close at 10751. Markets are cautiously looking at the upside after the consolidation which has lasted for almost two months. However only a weekly close above the 1.3800 levels should show more upside. Market is still short ahead of FOMC next week and that’s going to limit dips within a range of 1.3600-1.3800.
- The British Pound rose to 1.5200 levels and may continue to rise if the Bank of England is able to convince the markets about its current stance The British Pound may benefit if the BOE succeeds in branding themselves as standing truly at the center of the policy spectrum. Rating agency Fitch said the UK’s AAA credit rating may be jeopardized if it doesn’t do more about its fiscal shortfall reminding us that political risk could be a major factor in the United Kingdom.
- Commodity currencies continue to be bullish on the backdrop of strong economic data from Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Australia is the first country to raise rates to 4%. RBNZ left rates unchanged at 2.5% and reiterated the already stated stance of removing stimulus in the middle of 2010. The key risk for commodity currency comes from the tightening policies to cool down China.
- Key Data for the coming week are Euro-Zone Employment and US industrial production on Monday. Tuesday would be crucial with Euro-Zone CPI, ZEW survey, US Housing data and the most important FOMC rate decision (rate may not be hiked but the wordings need to be watched). On Wednesday we would see the UK Jobless and other unemployment figures for the UK with Thursday bringing focus back to the weekly jobless claims. Friday would see housing, retail sales coming out of various regions.
Domestic Outlook
- USD/INR saw downside for most of last week, though dips below the 45.40 saw importer buying interest amid intervention fears as well. As a result of such buying interest some the pair staged some sharp rally towards the upside all of which faltered at the 45.63 level. SENSEX gains aided with the INR upside though stock market gains were trimmed on fears of rate tightening on strong Jan Industrial Production for a second month in a row.
- Inflation data next week is to be the focal point and is likely to be higher on the backdrop of high weekly food prices. However we expect food inflation has peaked out and the same effect would be reflected on the WPI in the coming month which could settle in the range of 7-8%. The borrowing programme still being largely front loaded with almost 70% of the government borrowing being done in the first half is likely to keep yields in the 7.8 % levels for some time. On the whole we expect that the USD/INR to gradually tilt lower, but dips would not be very rapid till exporters start panicking. Broader range of 45.28-45.75 is seen being traded for now as the USD/INR consolidates with eyes on policy at home as well as external risks. Intraday range of 45.38-45.63 should hold as state bids and underlying strength of the INR unlikely to let the pair go either way. One more factor that might be a food for thought is that markets have started looking at the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) which is hovering at 112 against a historic high of 116. It remains to be seen how far the central bank stays on the side lines.
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