Archive for October, 2009
Indian Economy – Review and Analysis, October 2009
Moneybol brings the economic review every month. This is the Second such review in the series. The Team of analysts at Monybol.com are committed to provide you the power of first hand research. Hope you will find it useful. Please feel free to comment your suggestions and feedback.
Monthly market round up – October’09
Equity – Sensex

Equity markets started with a slight bearish note but in the middle of the month huge selling and concerns of increasing interest rates drove the markets below 16,000 levels to close at 15,896, 7.18% down from the September close.
Exchange rate

Rupee continued its strengthening journey during initial part of the month reaching 46/USD but later with massive selling in equity markets and drawing down of funds, the same weakened and closed the month at 46.9/USD.
10 year Benchmark yields

G-Sec yields rose for this month as well touching a high of 7.47% but with SLR increase of 1%, buying surfaced in the bonds driving down yields to 7.3% at month end.
Crude Oil

Crude oil started the month on a bullish note. December future rose from $70.61 as on September end to touch the monthly high of $81.37 on Oct 21. The future closed at $76.99 on Oct 30 showing a rise of 9% during the month mainly on account of recovering prospects of US economy.
Gold Prices

Gold prices remained above the 1000 dollar mark all through the month. Gold prices increased at a stretch at the beginning of the month but thereafter corrected to close at $1040.40, up 3.2% from September.
Author: Praveen Bajaj, B.Com(H), MBA (SCMHRD)
Inflation at 1.51%
Inflation for week ending October 17 at 1.51%
Indian inflation measure WPI showed prices rose by 1.51% for the weekending October 17, 2009 over corresponding week last year. The rise was less than analyst’s expectation of 1.59%. Rise in index last year during this week was 10.58%.
As compared to last week the benchmark measure remained unchanged whereas compared to week ending September 19, WPI declined by 0.45%.
Index of ‘Primary articles’ which has led to build up inflation showed a rise of 8.67% YoY infact declined over the last week as well as from month ago. MoM, prices of primary articles have declined by 1.16%. All fish lovers who saw prices rising for October 10 rejoiced a bit with decrease in prices for fish marine component (6% current week compared to 14% last week).
Fuel, Power, light and lubricants which was responsible for the high inflation rate last year has declined by 6.2% over last year. MoM decline in fuels index is 0.26%.
‘Manufactured products’ is the only component in WPI which has shown a increase over the last week. The index grew 0.14% over the week and 1.56% over the year but MoM declined by 0.41%. Food products component of Manufactured products has increased by 17.4% over the previous year.
As reported last week as well, primary articles and food products having a weight of 22% and 11% respectively have led the increase in prices this time. RBI in the recently released 2nd Quarter review of monetary policy also expressed its concern on the increasing inflation. RBI governor expects inflation to reach 6.5% by December end. Last year’s inflation and this year’s are very different in the respect that last year it was a worldwide phenomenon but this year none of the major economies are experiencing inflation till now. This is one aspect because RBI needs to take a more cautious approach in taming inflation.
In direction towards exiting from an accommodative policy approach, RBI increased the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) by 1% to 25%. This is not expected to have much effect as overall banking industry has a SLR of about 27%. But increasing inflation as well as RBI move has further strengthened the concerns of an early interest rate increase. Both equity markets and G-Sec markets have already reacted to such concerns. Benchmark G-sec yields rose from a low of 7% around Sep 24 to 7.4% before the announcement by RBI following which yields have dropped to 7.29% currently. Nifty is down from 5150 levels seen around Oct 17 to 4711 on Oct 30.
Indian markets have already started feeling the impact of increasing inflation but where exactly this end up and how effective RBI proves in controlling the inflation along with balancing growth is an important question which will be answered only in coming few months.
Reliance Industries Q2 Results
Reliance Industries Result Highlights
Price performance
| Time Period |
Stock |
Nifty 50 |
| 1 MONTH |
-7.49 |
-5.12 |
| 3 MONTH |
4.03 |
5.25 |
| 1 YEAR |
66.38 |
76.14 |
Reliance Industries Market Data as on 29th October 2009
| LISTING | NSE/ BSE |
| MARKET CAP (Cr.) |
Rs. 3,34,482 |
| 52-WEEK HIGH |
Rs. 2490.0 |
| 52-WEEK LOW |
Rs. 1021.0 |
| BETA |
1.25 |
| CURRENT PE (x) |
22 |
| INDUSTRY PE (x) |
n/a |
Financials

Reliance Industries Ltd. declared its second quarter results today. The results came in line with the Bloomberg consensus expectations.
RESULT HIGHLIGHTS:
- Reliance’s standalone net profit fell by around 6% YoY, to Rs. 3,852 cr. from Rs. 4,116 cr. This was mainly on account of a lower gross refinery margins (GRMs)
- The total turnover rose by around 5% YoY, to Rs. 46,848 cr from Rs. 44,688 cr.
- Its petrochemical segment sales are down by around 14% YoY at Rs. 13,340, while the refining segment revenues remained flat
- Its turnover from the Oil & Gas segment rose on account of ramp up of the gas production from the KG basin
- Company’s GRMs stood at US$ 6.3/barrel for the half year and US$ 6.0/ barrel for the quarter ending 30th September, 2009 which is one of the key causes of disappointment given the complex nature of its refinery
- Its operating margin improved by around 90bps from 15.5% to around 15.4%
- Depreciation cost for the company jumped 92.4% to Rs 2,432 crore. This is mainly on account of higher depreciation in Oil & Gas and Refinery & Marketing business
- Its other income jumped by around 316% and there was substantial gain on the inventory front too
- For the half year ending September 2009 the EBIT margin from its refinery business fell to 4.1% as compared to 8.4% in the previous year mainly on account of over capacity with the addition of SEZ refinery and lower demand at the global level
- Even though the half year EPS is only around Rs 46 we believe it to touch around 110 levels for the full year on account of further ramp up of the gas production
Experts on the street believe that the numbers are disappointing as per their estimates and on account of lower margins and higher other income and they expect the stock to test Rs. 1900 levels.
Author: Rahul Sonthalia, Analyst, Kredent Group
Monetary Policy and Credit Policy
The Reserve Bank of India announced its second quarter review of monetary/credit policy. Despite the fact that most of the key rates policy rates remained unchanged as expect, the benchmark indices corrected by around 2% with the banking and real estate sectors plummeting the most. This is mainly because of the fact that the policy sets a tone for the beginning of the reversal of Monetary Easing.

Some of the key highlights form the policy documents are:
- The share of agriculture in GDP has been declining over time, and as of 2008-09 it was 17.0 per cent. However, experience shows that a deficient rainfall can have a disproportionate impact on overall economic prospects and on the sense of well-being. Poor output will push up prices and depress rural labor incomes. Given the inter-sectoral supply-demand linkages, the knock-on impact on the industrial and services sectors can also be significant.
- Continuing the trend witnessed since Q2 of 2008-09, the two major components of demand, viz., private final consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation (with a combined weight of around 88 per cent) decelerated further in Q1 of 2009-10. Government consumption, which had increased sharply in Q3 and Q4 of 2008-09 due to the fiscal stimulus measures and the Sixth Pay Commission payouts, also decelerated in Q1 of 2009-10. While the direct impact of fiscal stimulus is waning, its indirect impact on private consumption and investment will persist for some more time
- The GDP projection for 2009-10 for policy purposes remains unaltered at 6%, made in the First Quarter Review of July 2009.
- Keeping in view the global trend in commodity prices and the domestic demand-supply balance, the baseline projection for WPI inflation at end-March 2010 is placed at 6.5 per cent with an upside bias. This is higher than the 5.0 per cent WPI inflation projected in the First Quarter Review of July 2009 as the upside risks have materialized

- The policy dilemma for India is different in some important respects from that of advanced economies as also other emerging market economies. First, most of these countries do not face an immediate risk of inflation. Indeed, in several advanced economies, the concerns were about a possible deflation, which are just about waning. On the other hand, India is actively confronted with an upturn in inflation – a rising WPI inflation and stubbornly elevated CPI inflation
- An issue of some immediate relevance is the critical need to downsize the government borrowing programme so as to help sustain a moderate interest rate regime. This is crucial for investment demand to pick up on which hinge our long-term economic prospects
- Reversing monetary policy easing stems from the concern about inflation. WPI inflation has turned positive, the base effect which has kept WPI low so far is now gone and CPI inflation has remained stubbornly elevated. On a financial year basis, WPI has already increased by 5.95 per cent. In as much as monetary policy acts with a lag, there is need to act now
- The Reserve Bank’s inflation expectations survey shows that households expect inflation to increase over the next three months as also one year. The lag with which monetary policy operates suggests that there is a case for tightening sooner rather than late
- The balance of judgment at the current juncture is that it may be appropriate to sequence the ‘exit’ in a calibrated way so that while the recovery process is not hampered, inflation expectations remain anchored.
- The ‘exit’ process can begin with the closure of some special liquidity support measures. In this policy government has indeed removed some special liquidity support measures like:
- The statutory liquidity ratio (SLR), which was reduced from 25 per cent of demand and time liabilities to 24 per cent, is being restored to 25 per cent
- The limit for export credit refinance facility [(under section 17(3A) of the RBI Act], which was raised to 50 per cent of eligible outstanding export credit, is being returned to the pre-crisis level of 15%
- The two non-standard refinance facilities: (i) special refinance facility for scheduled commercial banks under section 17(3B) of the RBI Act (available up to March 31, 2010), and (ii) special term repo facility for scheduled commercial banks (for funding to MFs, NBFCs, and HFCs) (available up to March 31, 2010) are being discontinued with immediate effect
- In view of large increase in credit to the commercial real estate sector over the last one year and the extent of restructured advances in this sector, it would be prudent to build cushion against likely non-performing assets (NPAs). Accordingly, it is proposed that to increase the provisioning requirement for advances to the commercial real estate sector classified as ‘standard assets’ from the present level of 0.40 per cent to 1 per cent
Our Analysis:
It is quite evident from the mentioned facts in the credit policy that the central bank will in any circumstances curtain the rise in inflation and on the basis of the overall assessment the first priority among the stance of monetary policy for the remaining period of 2009-10 is to “Keep a vigil on the trends in inflation and be prepared to respond swiftly and effectively through policy adjustments to stabilize inflation expectations.”
Thus we strongly believe that a rate hike is definitely on the cards in third quarter monetary policy for FY2009-10 and hence as already mentioned in the report titled “Credit Policy Eve” one should start booking profits from the rate sensitive sectors like banking, real estate and infrastructure and start moving towards defensive sectors.
Author: Rahul Sonthalia, Analyst, Kredent Group
Will RBI retain easy monetary policy?
The Reserve Bank of India today released its review of the macroeconomic and monetary developments which serves as a background to the Second Quarter review of Monetary Policy 2009-10 being announced tomorrow, October 27th, 2009.

Some of the Key Highlights of the documents which we believe will set the tone of the monetary policy are:
Global economy has started exhibiting tentative signs of recovery, but the recovery is, however, widely perceived to remain slow and gradual, with receding but significant downside risks
- The first quarter GDP growth in 2009-10 still points to persistence of slowdown
- Information available on various lead indicators in the second quarter of 2009-10 suggests that because of deficient monsoon, kharif output may be adversely affected
- Deceleration in aggregate demand that was witnessed in the second half of 2008-09 continued during 2009-10. Growth in private consumption demand fell to as low as 1.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2009-10. Investment demand also decelerated further, and the high growth in government consumption demand that was witnessed in the last two quarters of 2008-09 moderated.
- Deficient monsoon and the associated drought like conditions in several parts of the country, and the more recent floods in some other parts, could also dampen rural demand
- External demand continues to be weak. Trade data show that during April-August 2009, merchandise exports and imports declined by 31.0 per cent and 33.4 per cent, respectively, over the corresponding period of the previous yea
- The liquidity conditions remained in surplus on a sustained basis, which was absorbed by the Reserve Bank through reverse repo operations under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) and the over night rates hovered around LAF signaling ample liquidity into the system
- The changing inflation environment, however, is being driven by strong escalation in prices of food articles, which have increased by 14.4 per cent (year-on-year) so far. Excluding food items, the WPI inflation remains negative at (-) 3.4 per cent.
- From the stand point of monetary policy, anchoring inflation expectations in the face of sustained high inflation in essential commodities will be a key challenge
- The Reserve Bank’s professional forecasters survey points to downward revision to the growth outlook from 6.5 per cent to 6.0 per cent in 2009-10.
- Emerging inflationary pressures may also persist and escalate further on account of the fading away of the base effect, cost push pressures through wage-price revisions in the face of elevated CPI inflation, challenges in improving the supply situation of essential commodities in the short-run, gradual pressure on global commodity prices along with global recovery, and rising inflation expectations on account of elevated CPI inflation.
- The overall economic outlook is, therefore, a mixture of upside prospects of recovery and downside risks. Managing the trade-off between supporting growth and reining in inflation expectations poses a complex policy challenge.
Summary:
The tradeoff will be costly since the capital markets are moving way beyond the real economy. However, we do not expect a rate hike in the second quarter monetary policy review due to a bleak growth outlook, however the tone in which inflation is presented in this press release by the RBI clearly sets a prelude for a rate hike in the third quarter policy review or even before that.
The way Nifty has behaved over the last 4 trading sessions clearly suggests that markets are factoring in a change in RBI’s stance. Thus we strongly believe that its time in the market to start booking profits and move away from the rate sensitive like banking, infrastructure and real estate.
Author: Rahul Sonthalia, Analyst, Kredent Group
Hero Honda net profit rises by 95%
Results highlights – India’s largest manufacturer of motorcycles, Hero Honda Motors second quarter results were ahead of the market’s expectation mainly on account of better margins. The company reported a strong surge of 95% in net profit to Rs 597.14 crore compared to the second quarter of financial year 2008-09. A similar sharp surge came in the first quarter ending June, when net profit rose by 83 per cent to Rs 500.11 crore.
The growth in sales is 26.8% compared to the same quarter in previous financial year. The company reported a strong total income of Rs4,059.4 crore. This was driven by huge volumes as the company sold more than one million units in the quarter.
Growth Factors – The festive season spread over two months during the quarter worked wonders for the company in terms of volume growth, which was also seen across all the segments in the automobile sector.
Decrease in raw material prices, depreciation, and the effective taxation rate at the Haridwar plant (from 28% in first quarter to 22.31% in second quarter) led to the higher bottom line compared to the 26.8% increase in top line

Hero Honda vs. Index (source: BSEINDIA.COM)
Stock prices have been building up since August in accordance with strong market fundamentals and good earnings forecast. Prices touched a high of Rs.1724 in 3rd week of September and moved in the range of 1600-1700 ahead of the earnings announcement. Prices opened up on Thursday post announcement and rose up by 2.4% but were dragged down due overall weakness in the market. Prices corrected to close at Rs 1595, about 0.9% down from previous day on October 22, 2009. A better than expected performance failed to keep to prices at increased levels.
Caution – Though the company has achieved a strong volume growth in first half of FY2010, we believe that with the ongoing strikes at one of its major suppliers Rico Auto and few other auto ancillaries in the Gurgaon belt could lead to production constraints in second half of FY2010. Thus we believe that if the demand continues to remain strong, the ongoing agitations in the factories of its major suppliers could affect its production, thereby pushing down its sales volume on a quarterly basis.
Company expects an increase in prices of steel and aluminum between 5 to 10 per cent in the coming quarters as the economy revives. Increasing Interest rate can be threat to all the automobile players in the short term.
We believe given the sound management, consistent performance and expected increase in demand due to reviving economy makes it good long term bait for long term capital appreciation and stability of dividends. But all the above positive points are already factored in the current price. At the current market price of Rs1586, the stock trades at around 16.5x its FY2010E and 14.9x FY2011E Bloomberg consensus earnings of Rs97.6 and Rs108 respectively.
Full disclosure: No position at the time of this writing. Please do your own research before making an investment decisions for HEROHONDA.
Authors:
Vineet Patawari , B.Com (H), ACA, PGDM (IIM Indore)
India Inflation Up 1.21%
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) crept up by 1.21% over last year for the week ending October 10, 2009. After remaining in the negative territory for 3 months from June-August’09, benchmark inflation index registered a growth of more than 1% for the first time after May’09.
Rise in inflation is mainly led by the increase in prices of primary articles (weight 22.05%) which have grown by 8.27% over the year. Food articles, having a weight of 15.4% in the index have been the driving force. For the current week, fish-marine, moong and rice showed the maximum increase. Non food articles and minerals, other constituents of primary articles have declined marginally.

Fuel price index remained in the negative territory declining 4.68% over the year whereas manufactured products having the maximum weight of 63.75% grew by 2.94%.
Inflation, as measured by WPI, has been consistently moving upwards since June’09. This has been induced largely due to base effect of high prices last year. Increase in WPI is expected to gain momentum in the coming months as base effect wanes further. As per our analysis, taking the index figures for current week and projecting the same for the current financial year, rise in WPI is expected to touch 3% by October end, 5% by early December and 6% by late January. Add to this the perceived increase in prices of food articles due to poor monsoons and these growth rates can be seen coming at an earlier date. One factor which might comfort inflation wathcers is the manufactured articles. IIP has been growing at a good pace and it commands a good weightage of 63.7% which might keep the index in check but demand for manufactured articles could play a spoil sport.
RBI has kept an inflation target of 5% for the year 2009-10 and as this is expected to be breached a policy action from RBI is expected. RBI in this case has a dual role: managing inflation as well as facilitating growth. Timing of any policy response would be of critical importance in balancing the two contrasting objectives. RBI’s forthcoming policy announcement on Tuesday, October 27, 2009 would give important signals. Impact of the fact that WPI would be released monthly from the current weekly release also needs to be assessed.
What RBI will do would be closely watched but as of now latest WPI figures have pulled down equity markets and has raised concerns of an earlier increase in interest rates.
Keep watching this space for further updates and analysis of RBI’s actions.
Author: Praveen Bajaj, B.Com(H), MBA (SCMHRD)
Sugar Stock Could Correct
Brazil this week imposed a 2 percent tax on foreigners’ purchases of stocks and stocks to curb the appreciation of its currency. This is because the Brazilian currency has appreciated by around 33% the dollar this year, the best performer among the 16 most-actively traded currencies tracked byBloomberg.
This was in fact hurting the Brazilian economy, since a major portion of its income depends on export of Sugar and other related products. Thus in a move to protect its exporters the government took this decision. This also lead to a 3.4% fall in the BrazilianBovespa Index tumbling by around 3%, the most since March.
I believe that this move could also lead to a correction in the Global sugar prices, because it will lead to a slowdown of fund flow in Brazil. Thus, at the current levels it makes sense to go short on the Indian Sugar stocks, which have already risen by a handsome amount (YTD), because if sugar prices will correct, its inevitable for the stocks to follow the same trend.
Moreover, most of the leading brokerage houses in India has come up with fresh buy calls on the Indian sugar stocks, despite their already escalated levels and which I believe could be the sugar sector entering into the distribution phase of this bubble.
Hence, one can go short on the sector with a trading view, but definitely with a stop loss.
Author: Rahul Sonthalia, Analyst, Kredent Group
Mutual Fund For Rural India
The world’s population can be divided into three basic segments based on the economic pyramid. Majority of them would lie at the bottom of the pyramid with annual income less than $1000. This economic inequality must be overcome to ensure the welfare and happiness of people all around. The need of the hour is to develop innovative products or services for these people.
The world’s population can be divided into three basic segments based on the economic pyramid. Majority of them would lie at the bottom of the pyramid with annual income less than $1000. This economic inequality must be overcome to ensure the welfare and happiness of people all around. The need of the hour is to develop innovative products or services for these people.
THE MUTUAL FUND ADVANTAGE
A mutual fund for the rural population is one such solution. The fund would require minimal investment on the part of the people in the rural areas and will be designed in such a manner that it helps them increase their financial position with respect to the other strata of the society. The fund will be designed in the simplest possible manner so that even a layman or an illiterate can understand the way it will function and will have no complex terms and conditions. The fund will not only boost the income of the rural households but will also increase their spending capacity thereby leading to the overall welfare and development of the regions in which they reside.
If we consider the case of India, even the irregularity of monsoon can play a role in the overall functioning of the fund. By securing or insuring the rural people against such natural phenomenon, the fund can extend its advantages to higher levels.
But for all this to happen, private partnership in this initiative is also a must. Large corporate houses must come forward and join hands with the government in building a financial instrument of this kind so that the people at the bottom of the pyramid can have something to cheer about and lead a better life altogether. They should take up the responsibility of first creating awareness about such a thing by educating the masses about it and then taking up the cause of these people by developing a simple instrument of this kind.
By developing this mutual fund and implementing it, the rural population will definitely be moved to a new level in the economic pyramid.
BRINGING ABOUT A CHANGE IN RURAL INVESTMENT PATTERN
The next wave of growth in rural areas will come from the rural markets. Presently the underdeveloped world is facing a crisis in the infrastructure sector. Once the growth story embraces this sector, the biggest gainer will be the villages. Government policies and employment generation programs will also improve the standard of living of rural masses by enhancing their per capita income.
Now a question which lingers on everyone’s mind is: How can ordinary, presently low-income earners, from rural
background become rich? The answer to that question is as simple as it is routine: Start by saving and investing something regularly, even modest amounts, in anticipation of big returns in the future. If a villager is looking for big returns, it cannot come from the traditional sources like bonds or insurance.
Having said that, we must appreciate that although the rural economy is looking to give the urban economy a run for its money, there isn’t enough exclusively “rural” financial instruments to channel this money to productive purposes. The most feasible tool seems to be “Mutual Fund” specially designed to address the unique needs of the rural world. The concept of Mutual Funds for the poor provides significant institutional mechanisms to move the poor out of the village economy and into the more dynamic corporate sector, to a stage where a significant share of corporate wealth could be owned by the poor.
The Mutual Fund is but one institutional mechanism to link the rural population to the corporate sector. The underlying premise of the Mutual Fund is the notion of creating possibilities for the poor to own corporate assets. Financial policy could accordingly be restructured to ensure that all assets, from urban land to real estate development, from banks to corporate trading houses, could be redesigned to accommodate the rural masses (indirectly by the MF way) as equity partners. The two institutional instruments to make this possible remain the Mutual Fund and the need for private limited companies to transform themselves into public limited companies. Here monetary and fiscal policy can provide incentives to encourage the corporatisation of private wealth along with the reservation of space for equity ownership of this wealth by the rural public
The savings of the poor can not only augment the savings base but also broaden the investment capacity of the economy, whilst transforming the poorest rural household into stakeholders in the process of national economic growth. So any mutual fund that targets the rural economy for raising the money and investing it at the best place can change the face of rural investment pattern and has the potential to become a big threat to low interest yielding insurance or post office products.
A GOOD STRATEGY HAS TO BE CHALKED OUT
To produce worthwhile returns any investment instrument which can be offered needs to be linked with the equity markets but the returns have to be assured. The only viable option is regular investment through a scheme similar to Systematic Investment Plan (SIP), a scheme where you can periodically invest a fixed sum, which could be as low as INR 500 per month. Considered as one of the ideal low-risk methods of wealth accumulation, SIP helps investors overcome the fluctuations of equity investment. Investing through SIP makes timing and cycles of the share market totally irrelevant. With SIP, farmers have to invest a fixed amount regularly. Therefore, they end up buying more units when the markets are down (when the NAV is low) and fewer units when the markets are up (when the NAV is high). SIP works as a disciplined investment method as it forces you to buy even when the markets are low, which is actually the best time to buy.
There must be no risk to the capital invested. Looking at all these aspects a special type of mutual fund has to be designed for the rural Indian market. The per capita income is below INR 50 per day for a huge chunk of the population. So keeping their standard of living, risk profile, awareness towards such instruments, etc. the concept has to be very unique. It’s very difficult on their part to accept any instrument which can require even an iota of their wealth. The device needs to be backed up by some assurance from a trustworthy sponsor like the government or reputed business houses like Birla or Tata. For a player who has low recognition in the rural market it is difficult for the rural masses to accept it.
In the initial stage, the mutual fund can be introduced for as low as INR 200 to join; this variant of mutual fund can be targeted to daily wage laborers and landless farmers as they have the ability to pay that small sum up front when they get their wages or remuneration. They have surplus cash whenever they get their pay and will be willing to invest it if the terms and conditions are simple. To keep the depositor involved and interested in the process of making money from the savings, the mutual fund needs to bring in the option of adding to their investment in increments as small as Rs. 20 and as frequently as daily or weekly.
The average length of time an investor stays in a securities scheme, other than a money market/liquid scheme, is one-fifth of the time in the UK and two-fifths of the time in the US. Furthermore rural people will normally remain invested for even lesser time. While designing the network this point has to be kept in mind. One challenge is to tackle the liquidity issue of the instrument. To make it customer oriented, the liquidation of the instrument should be very fast and there should be no impediment to exit from the investment. Communication and synergies between the channel partners thus becomes a decisive issue in the overall state of affairs.
LEVERAGING THE RURAL ECONOMY – THE GRAMEEN BANK EXAMPLE
We believe that promoters of such rural world focused fund have to follow a course that few others in the world have done — and that is, leverage the rural economy. This is something that most of the Mutual fund companies don’t do because it requires hard work. There have been some incidences of similar instruments invented to cater to the investment needs of rural population, but they were unable to tap such a huge population of villages. So the main challenge lies in reaching to such a mammoth area. So their challenge is to invent a new business model where they can create a distribution base effectively in all the villages in the world, and to learn to do that at one-tenth the cost of implementing it in the urban world. Just to put that on a scale that someone could understand, to succeed in urban world, they need to be able to do business at one-tenth the cost of the West. The challenge is to be able to work with partners because that the branch-led model will not work in this context. For example, they might partner with a local financial institution (banks, post office, insurance agents, cooperative banks, etc.), a micro-finance agency or companies’ outlet like ITC’s Choupal Sagar in India or someone who is already in the village for a business purpose. The Mutual fund might even partner with someone who is selling fertilizers or seeds or tractors. How can we leverage these partnerships to do business? That question drives the need for a new business model to reach out to this market.
A classic case in point for the overall setup is Grameen Bank, Bangladesh. It has taken the initiative in launching the first Mutual Fund of the poor, where it is providing opportunities for investing a small fraction (15 Crore taka) of the savings of its members, in a managed, close-end, Mutual Fund which would invest its portfolio in the corporate sector. The potential of this experiment has to be tested within the small, rather unstable capital market of Bangladesh. On the contrary, looking at the huge, fundamentally strong and stable stock markets in India, the probability of success of such Mutual Fund is much higher. Many clues can be taken from this model to develop a similar instrument in other parts of the world.
VARIOUS CONCERNS
The biggest risk is the failure of the monsoon. Now, can one expect savings and investment from rural population without fixing this risk? What they have to do, is to ask if this is an insurable risk. Can they get such insurance? The answer is yes. Can they then sell this insurance to the farmers? Again, the answer is yes. Finally, can this insurance be further reinsured outside the home country so that the risk was shared even more widely? Yet again, the answer is yes. This will create a win-win situation for all. The farmers will be liberated of the jeopardy of tribulations of monsoons. This can surely act as a side stream of revenues for the same company which is coming up with the MF. Otherwise they can gain from strategic alliance with insurance companies to get readymade insurance product. The same distribution channel will be used to sale insurance products. This protection provided to farmers will ensure a continuous flow.
The next point of concern lies in redistribution of the returns as they understand simple things like the value of their money doubling in 5 years. This is possible considering a modest return of 14-15 % compounded annually over a horizon of 5 years. The money can be tripled in less than 9 years at the same interest rate. They can understand this concept better than the complicated NAV for MF. Generating this kind of returns will not be a daunting task for the expert fund managers who are at presently generating much higher return than that.
ROLE OF IT AND FUTURE
For this MF, information technology will play the most vital part. Instead of making it too complicated by involving paper work, chip embedded cards can be issued to all the investors. The rural population is familiar with such cards like Kisan credit card, etc. These cards will store all the information regarding the investor and all the addition to the fund can be easily made without any paper work. The investor should be allowed to check the value of his/her investment. Different schemes can be made based on the requirement of the investor. The minimum time period for exit should be 3 to 5 years for any scheme. The people who start investing for the marriage of the son/ daughter or retirement planning, etc can remain invested for a longer period of time.
There should not be any entry load for the fund but exit load of around 3-5% should be imposed. We can make this instrument a unique one where the investor can see his money grow and be encouraged to invest more money. The surplus money is generally wasted because it is difficult for them to find rational avenues for spending this money or to invest them in a cogent manner. The investment opportunity should be made as trouble-free and effortless as possible.
People in rural areas should be educated about such instruments with the help of Gram Panchayats and other influential people in rural areas.
There are many complexities involved in the model. Keeping in mind the basic framework suggested above, we can work upon the idea of such a MF by presenting the idea among the people who have crystal clear knowledge about the conditions prevailing in the rural market and those who are competent enough to chalk out the intricacies of the MF. We are sure this mutual fund has the potential to see the light of day and also show the rural Indians some light at the end of the long tunnel.
Author: Vineet Patawari , B.Com (H), ACA, PGDM (IIM Indore)
Indian Economy – Review and Analysis, September 2009
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The month of September bought quite a lot of good news for India. Equity markets zoomed with renewed optimism and exchange rate strengthened. Among other broad based indicators, Index of Industrial Production continued its good growth. Exports and imports which were declining sharply saw a decline in the rate of de-growth and consequently trade balance improved. Monsoon and inflation are the factors which have contained the good news. Monsoon this year has been 23% below normal, forcing the country to face worse drought conditions since 1972. Crop sowing has been affected and this leads us to our second errant factor which is inflation. Food prices have already been high and owing to poor monsoons prices may inch up higher in coming months pushing inflation upwards at a higher rate. This poses crucial challenges for the Reserve Bank of India as economy is recovering from recent downturn and any interest rate moves this time should be in careful consideration of both inflation and recovery.
Share Market
Equities started September month on a bearish note but soon recovered and rose for most part of the month. Sensex closed the month at 17126 highest since June’08. Rise was 9.3% from August’09.

Government Securities
For Benchmark 6.90% 2019 bond, the month started with high yields of 7.44% but during the month buying in the G-Sec pushed yields to a low of 6.95%. Yields stood at 7.19% on the last day. Volumes also increased considerably during the month.

Gold Prices
Gold prices rose substantially during first half of the month to reach a monthly high of $1,024/Oz. Thereafter prices corrected a bit to close at $ 1, 008/Oz.

Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil remained quite volatile during the month. From last month’s close of $69.96/brl, prices rose to a monthly high of $72.47/brl and thereafter fell to $66.02/brl. Month end price was $70.61/brl

Exchange Rate – Dollar – Rupee ($-INR)
Rupee weakened on the 1st day of month to 49.13 that was the highest point for the month. Thereafter rupee strengthened continuously to close the month at 47.70, 2.1% lower than last month.

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Author: Praveen Bajaj, B.Com(H), MBA (SCMHRD)

